Wednesday, March 05, 2008

One last thought about last night's primaries/caucus

How about a quick delegate rundown for last night… keep in mind that all these numbers are tentative, as final vote tallies continue to creep in from the post-Texas primary Texas caucus (yes, it is as ridiculous as it sounds…)

Vermont, which Sen. Obama won, and its 15 delegates: Obama grabs 9 and Clinton 6.

Rhode Island, which Sen. Clinton won, and its 21 delegate: Clinton gets 12 while Obama still gathers 8.

Texas PRIMARY, which Clinton won, and its 126 delegates: Clinton takes 65 but Obama still grabs 61, only four less than what Clinton, the winner, got.

Ohio, which Clinton won, and its 141 delegates: Clinton took 76 while Obama grabbed 65.

So for the night, Clinton grabbed 191 delegates while Obama scooped-up a still-respectable 178.

The overall lead in pledged delegates, as of now, per CNN;

Obama: 1,257

Clinton: 1,127

If you add super-delegates, Obama has 1,451 and Clinton 1,365 with 2,025 needed to officially secure the nomination.

What does all of this mean?

Well, the stark reality of it is that, despite her three state victories last night, Clinton only chipped away at Obama's pledged delegate lead, and if Obama can show he's not going to collapse under the weight of Clinton's assault, there will be no reason for the super delegates to overturn the will of the voters in either pledged delegates or the popular vote)… and, as my esteemed colleague Scott says, with the way the delegates are divided, in order for Sen. Clinton to pull ahead in the pledged delegate count she would have to win the rest of the primaries and/or caucuses by 65% in each state… which, barring Sen. Obama having a secret love-child with Brittany Spears, will NOT happen.

As always; stay tuned…

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